Logic Links: live feed of mispriced related contracts across prediction markets
API listing logically linked prediction-market contracts and live constraint breaks. Market makers and quant traders pay.
Crowded · Paper maps 1.9M contract links
Written for: Small startup team
Next step
Call the head of trading at a crypto-native market maker already quoting on both Polymarket and Kalshi, and ask what they would pay per month for a live list of inconsistent contract sets with the resolution text attached.
Why now
This moves the prediction-market watch item from 'clean trade tape' to a sharper product. The hard part, matching contracts by their resolution text, now has a published method that LLMs can run cheaply. Contract counts keep growing faster than any desk can link them by hand.
What became possible
A new paper recovers 1.9M logical relations across more than 255,000 prediction-market contracts, using venue metadata and semantic reading of resolution criteria. It compiles them into constraint systems, finds arbitrage portfolios by integer programming, and replays full-depth Polymarket order books to measure them.
Two ways in
- Logic Links API
Continuously updated graph of implication, exclusion and partition relations between contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi, with the resolution text quoted. Live alerts fire when prices leave the allowed range.
- Customer
- Crypto-native market makers and prop desks quoting prediction markets
- Model
- Monthly data subscription, priced by latency tier
- Venue Consistency Monitor
The same graph sold to venues to flag contradictory or ambiguous resolution wording before listing and to spot cross-contract manipulation.
- Customer
- Listing and surveillance teams at prediction-market venues
- Model
- Annual licence
Competition
The raw side-verified tape is already covered. A free academic archive (Polymarket-v1 Database) has settlement-derived trade direction for 1.2B trades, and paid vendors (Telonex, Tardis, Bitquery, Allium) sell on-chain fills with maker and taker wallets.
Full competition notes (10 competitors)
The raw side-verified tape is already covered. A free academic archive (Polymarket-v1 Database) has settlement-derived trade direction for 1.2B trades, and paid vendors (Telonex, Tardis, Bitquery, Allium) sell on-chain fills with maker and taker wallets. Room remains in three places: (1) Selling maintained, ready-made trading-cost metrics (effective spreads, realised spreads, price impact per market and over time). Today these exist only in one-off papers, and no vendor I found sells them. (2) A continuously updated side-verified tape after April 2026: both big academic archives stop around 28 April 2026, and the 'v1' name suggests Polymarket moved to a new exchange (not confirmed). (3) Comparable cost metrics across venues such as Kalshi. These are thin, easily copied layers: Telonex or Tardis could add the same metrics quickly, so the edge would have to come from methodology quality, freshness and credibility with academics, not from the data.
- Polymarket-v1 Database (Qin & Yang, arXiv 2606.04217)
Full on-chain trade archive of Polymarket's first exchange (Nov 2022 to 28 Apr 2026): 1.2B trades, 1.3M markets, $61B volume, 42 monthly parquet files. Every trade has a buy/sell direction taken from blockchain settlement. This is essentially PredictTape's free research tier already published; no direct download link was found.
- SII-WANGZJ/Polymarket_data (Hugging Face)
Free 107GB parquet set: about 293M fills, plus quant and user tables that keep maker/taker roles. Can be queried with DuckDB.
- Telonex
Commercial tick-level Polymarket trades, order-book updates, quotes and on-chain fills (maker and taker wallets), 3+ years of history, free sample downloads. Marketed for backtesting slippage and spread costs.
- Tardis.dev (Polymarket)
Established crypto tick-data vendor that now covers Polymarket.
- PolyOrderbooks
Historical Polymarket API for replaying prices, liquidity and L2 order books, aimed at quant traders and researchers.
- MarketLens
Tick-level order-book history, trades, bulk exports and a Python SDK for replaying markets with slippage and queue-position models.
- OddPool
Historical order-book snapshots, top-of-book time series and trades, including on the free tier.
- Bitquery Polymarket API
GraphQL API for real-time and historical on-chain Polymarket trades, positions and settlements.
- Allium
Enterprise blockchain data platform with Polymarket order-book and trade tables, including spread and depth analysis.
- Apify dirtycode/polymarket-api
Live and historical order book, fills with on-chain transaction hashes, and an archived order book for backtesting.
Checked 2026-10-07
Risks
- Published arbitrage gets competed away quickly, so the value moves to speed and coverage
- One wrongly matched resolution clause can turn 'arbitrage' into a loss, so customers will check every link
- Venue terms of service may limit data redistribution
- CFTC and state actions could shrink the venues
Strong team fit; market pull is the weak point (5).
tech 7 · pull 5 · space 6 · fit 8 · build 7
Exposed
Companies that could benefit or be threatened. News and context, not investment advice.
Momentum of its main topic
Sources
What happened next
- +7d · 19 Oct 2026 nothing yet. While various prediction market analysis and arbitrage detection tools exist in the ecosystem, no product specifically matching the Logic Links opportunity description—a live feed of logically linked contracts with constraint-break alerts—was found to have launched, received funding, or garnered significant press coverage after October 7, 2026.
Status history
- 2026-10-07 Added to the watchlist
- 2026-10-19 Promoted from the watchlist: Today's evidence made it buildable
- 2026-10-19 Flagged as buildable