Runway Bands: probabilistic MRR forecasts from Stripe data already in your Postgres

Stripe MRR analytics is crowded, and single-line forecasts are already offered by Baremetrics, ChartMogul, Saascast and open-source tools like indie-metrics-mcp. Stripe also says its own analytics can forecast. I found no product that reads synced Stripe tables in the founder's own Postgres, shows real p10/p50/p90 ranges rather than one projection or a single confidence number, and alerts when the low-end cash forecast drops below a runway threshold the founder sets. Stripe's new real-time Postgres sync creates a fresh, unserved group of developer founders who already have the data locally, and a privacy-friendly, warehouse-native command-line tool at $19–49 is cheaper than Baremetrics' upper-tier pricing. The cash-floor alert is the most distinctive piece, since I found no source on runway alerts built from Stripe data. The risks are real. Baremetrics or Stripe could add confidence bands with little effort. MRR calculated from raw Stripe tables often fails to match Stripe's own numbers, especially with annual plans, so accuracy will decide trust. The Postgres sync is preview-only and charged per row, which limits the reachable market. Tiny founders may not pay for uncertainty ranges over a simple projection. You'd win on developer experience, being honest about uncertainty, and the alert, not on metrics coverage.

• Baremetrics (Forecast / Flightpath)

  The main incumbent for Stripe-connected SaaS analytics. It has forecasting, scenario planning and runway modeling for MRR, headcount and CAC. A third-party article lists it at about $108 a month at the low end, but its own comparison table says paid plans start at $49, so its price may overlap with yours. It hosts your data rather than reading your Postgres, and I saw no sign it shows probabilistic bands.

• ChartMogul

  Subscription analytics with limited forecasting on a few metrics. A third-party article lists it at about $199 a month for up to $10K MRR.

• Stripe Billing analytics

  Stripe's native MRR analytics. Stripe says it can 'forecast SaaS performance', but I found no documentation of a dedicated forecast feature. This is the biggest platform risk if Stripe adds forecasts on top of the data it already has.

• Stripe Data Pipeline real-time Postgres sync

  Not a competitor but the data source you depend on. Postgres sync is in preview and needs requested access. A third-party report says it costs $0.0025 per row with 5,000 free a month, or a $100 a month plan.

• Saascast

  An Indie Hackers Stripe revenue forecasting app from 2021 that used weighted regression and later a more advanced model. I couldn't confirm it's still running. It's the closest direct precedent for indie-focused forecasting.

• indie-metrics-mcp

  An open-source MCP server that reads Stripe data and returns a projected MRR and ARR with a trend direction and a single confidence level. It doesn't show ranges, and the method isn't documented.

• stripe-pulse

  A free open-source command-line tool that calculates MRR and subscription metrics straight from the Stripe API. It has no database and no forecast command.

• Remetry

  An indie Stripe analytics tool that writes AI plain-English summaries of revenue changes. None of the results mentioned forecasting.

• Row Zero Stripe MRR template

  A spreadsheet template that turns a Stripe subscriptions export into an MRR analysis with a forward-looking model. This is the do-it-yourself alternative.

• Metabase on synced Stripe data

  Teams can build their own MRR dashboards on synced Stripe tables, but they have to write the revenue definitions themselves, and it has no forecasting.

Checked 2026-10-16